Working Papers
Organized Crime, Local Politicians, and State Capacity
Abstract | Paper (Updated: 2025/04/02)| Nontechnical summary: Development Impact blog
This paper investigates the impact of losing mayors to successful assassinations on local government capacity by leveraging the randomness in the outcome of assassination attempts against Mexican mayors. Tax collection falls by 27%, and primary service expenditures shift to construction investments in municipalities with successful assassinations compared to failed attempts. Productive municipal workers leave and retaining them would require an 11% wage increase. There is suggestive evidence that more personnel are assigned to public security duties over the provision of public service. Non-political violence, economic activities, population changes, and the temporary rise in organized crime do not influence these outcomes. The results highlight the importance of leaders in maintaining fiscal and personnel capacity in violent environments.
Childbirth Effects of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami
(with Elizabeth Kayoon Hur)
Abstract | Paper (Updated: 2022/08/22) | Online appendix | (Replication package in progress)
This paper evaluates the effect of the in utero exposure to the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami on short-term childbirth outcomes in Indonesia. Exploiting variation in damage intensities across locations and the timing of exposure, we find that the probability of successful pregnancies drops by 5.9 pp, while miscarriages increase by 5.5 pp. However, this does not vary by intensity of exposure across locations. Our results suggest the importance of considering fetal loss in developing countries and highlight that facilitating household investment in health through various policies may mitigate negative birth effects in the aftermath of natural disasters.
Remittance and the Tax Structures in Developing Countries
Abstract | Paper (Updated: 2024/03/15)
This paper investigates the relationship between a country's reliance on remittances from abroad and its ability to collect taxes from various domestic sources. Despite the increasing flow of remittances in volume and proportion, particularly among developing countries, their role in determining the state's capacity to collect taxes has received little attention. This chapter explores the link between remittances and various tax revenue categories using country-level data. Two-way panel regressions suggest that a 1 percentage point (pp) increase in the inflow of remittances explains a 0.12 pp rise in consumption tax revenues. The same estimate derived from IV methods proxying for migrant network strength and openness of borders increases to 0.9 pp. Decomposing this result reveals that the increase in household consumption expenditure explains all of the statistical association, not the efficient tax-collecting mechanisms such as VAT. Subsample regressions by income category suggest that the association between remittances and consumption tax revenue is stronger in countries with lower income.
Works in Progress
Religious Conflicts and Educational Outcomes in Nigeria
(with Kayode Taiwo, Rose Camille Vincent)
Conflicts-Induced Erosion: Evidence on Local State Capacity and Revenue Mobilization in Burkina Faso
(with Rose Camille Vincent, Ablam Estel Apeti)
The Fiscal Social Contract under Criminal Governance: Evidence from Mexican Municipalities
(with Ana Isabel Lopez Garcia)
