Working Papers
Organized Crime, Local Politicians, and State Capacity
Abstract | Paper (Updated: 2023/12/15)| Nontechnical summary: Development Impact blog
This paper investigates the effects of losing mayors to successful assassinations on the capacity of local governments. By leveraging the randomness in the outcomes of assassination attempts against mayors in Mexico in 2002-21, I find that the loss of mayors negatively affects the fiscal and personnel capacities of the local governments. Municipal tax collection decreases by 29%. The share of expenditure on primary services falls by 3 percentage points and is crowded out toward investment in construction. Municipal workers at productive stages in their careers leave the position. The back-of-the-envelope calculation shows that wages should increase by 13% to retain them after assassinations. Organized criminal groups take advantage of the loss of mayors by increasing their presence in municipalities with successful assassinations. The results are not explained by non-political violence, levels of economic activities, or population changes. The results speak to the significance of leaders in maintaining fiscal capacity and retaining capable personnel in the workforce even in a violent environment.
Childbirth Effects of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami
(with Elizabeth Kayoon Hur)
Abstract | Paper | Online appendix | (Replication package in progress)
This paper evaluates the effect of the in utero exposure to the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami on short-term childbirth outcomes in Indonesia. Exploiting variation in damage intensities across locations and the timing of exposure, we find that the probability of successful pregnancies drops by 5.9 pp, while miscarriages increase by 5.5 pp. However, this does not vary by intensity of exposure across locations. Our results suggest the importance of considering fetal loss in developing countries and highlight that facilitating household investment in health through various policies may mitigate negative birth effects in the aftermath of natural disasters.
Remittance and the Tax Structures in Developing Countries
Abstract | Draft available upon request
Despite the increasing flow of remittances in volume and proportion, particularly among the developing countries, their role in determining the state’s capacity to collect taxes has received little attention. This paper explores the link between remittances and various tax revenue categories using country-level data. Two-way panel regressions suggest that a 1 pp increase in inflow of remittances explains a 0.12 pp rise in consumption tax revenues. The same estimate derived from IV methods proxying for migrant network strength and openness of borders increases to 0.9 pp. Decomposing this result reveals that increase in household consumption expenditure explains all of the statistical association, not the efficient tax-collecting mechanism such as VAT. Subsample regressions by income category suggests that the association between remittances and consumption tax revenue is stronger in countries with lower income.
Works in Progress
Religious Conflicts and Educational Outcomes in Nigeria
(with Kayode Taiwo, Rose Camille Vincent)
Conflicts-Induced Erosion: Evidence on Local State Capacity and Revenue Mobilization in Burkina Faso
(with Rose Camille Vincent)
Migrants, gangs, and taxes: Evidence from Mexico
(with Ana Isabel Lopez Garcia)
